California’s State Water Project (SWP), a lifeline for 27 million residents and 750,000 acres of farmland, recently increased its 2025 water allocation forecast from an initial 5% to 15% of requested supplies.
The update, announced by the Department of Water Resources (DWR) on Dec. 23, reflects improved precipitation and reservoir levels following strong storms in late November and early December.
Why it matters
The SWP, which supplies water to 29 public agencies across the state, plays a critical role in balancing urban, agricultural, and environmental water needs. Initial allocations had been constrained due to a dry and warm start to the water year, but recent storms have brought statewide precipitation to just above average, boosting reservoir levels and overall water supply prospects.
Key developments
Storm Impact: Strong atmospheric rivers in late 2024 brought significant rain and snow to Northern California, prompting the DWR to revise the allocation forecast upward earlier than usual.
- The past several weeks brought welcome rain and snow to Northern California, and these improved conditions have allowed the State Water Project to increase the allocation forecast to the benefit of millions of Californians, said DWR Director Karla Nemeth.
Regional Variability: While Northern California has benefitted, Southern California remains very dry and has not yet experienced the full benefits of these storms.
Ongoing Monitoring: State climatologist Dr. Michael Anderson cautioned that conditions remain fluid. “California is still in the early months of our wet season and as recent history has shown, conditions can change quickly. While Northern California has benefitted from early season storms, dry conditions in the new year can leave us with below-average totals when warmer weather arrives.”
Looking ahead
The DWR will continue monitoring precipitation, snowpack, and runoff throughout the winter, with monthly updates to the SWP allocation forecast. A final allocation will typically be determined in May or June, depending on water storage and snowmelt conditions.
This early increase provides some relief for water contractors, offering a more optimistic outlook for planning water supplies amid California’s ongoing water challenges. However, the long-term balance between growing water demand and unpredictable climate patterns remains a pressing concern for the state.
